Bitcoin BTC dipped below $80,000 on Tuesday, but renewed demand for spot exchange-traded funds offered a potential source of support after three weeks of price declines.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $301.2 million in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data. The positive weekly result ended a two-week streak of outflows.
This was followed by another $110 million in net inflows on Monday. The improvement came despite BTC falling 2.7% over the past seven days.
Bitcoin has corrected for three consecutive weeks since early October, showing that renewed fund demand has yet to reverse the broader pullback.
If inflows continue and strengthen, they could help cushion selling pressure. ETF flows alone, however, do not guarantee a price recovery.
Oil prices and Middle East tensions keep traders cautious
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments remain obstacles for Bitcoin as investors assess the potential impact of higher energy costs on inflation.
West Texas Intermediate crude reached $103.28 per barrel on Friday, its highest level since September 15, amid concerns about supply disruptions and tensions involving Iran.
On Sunday, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said they would continue attacks on Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. Stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran have also contributed to uncertainty.
Sustained increases in energy prices could add to inflation concerns and dampen demand for risk assets, potentially limiting Bitcoin’s upside even as ETF flows improve.
Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 with weekly indicators showing that bullish momentum has weakened.
The weekly Relative Strength Index stands near 54 and is moving toward the neutral 50 level. The reading remains above neutral but points to fading buying strength.
The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram is still positive, although its bars are weakening.
That suggests broader upward momentum has not disappeared, but it is losing strength during the correction.
On the downside, the weekly chart shows a Fibonacci retracement level near $78,661, followed by the 50-week Simple Moving Average around $75,817.
If Bitcoin recovers, resistance appears near $87,823, followed by the 100-week SMA at approximately $89,386.
Analysts are not optimistic about Bitcoin’s return to $100,000 before the end of the year.
In an email to Invezz, Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz, stated that “the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $90K by Christmas has also dropped, from 35% to 21%. Meanwhile, the implied chance of Bitcoin falling below $70K has increased from 11% to 17%, a rise of more than 50%.”
All eyes are now on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.
Fed funds futures were pricing approximately a 90% probability of rates being left unchanged on October 28, with a December rate hike priced at around 76%.
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows resistance near $80,816
Bitcoin’s daily chart presents a mixed picture. The price remains above its 100-day EMA at $77,691 and its 200-day EMA at $76,306, but below the 50-day EMA at $80,816.
That places BTC between near-term resistance and longer-term support. The daily RSI at 40 points to weak momentum, while the MACD remains below zero.
A sustained move above the 50-day EMA would be an initial sign of improvement. The next major barrier lies around $85,000, where previous selling activity could re-emerge.
If the decline resumes, the 100-day EMA at $77,691 and the 200-day EMA at $76,306 are the next daily support levels.
A daily close below those averages would weaken the technical structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
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